El Gobierno Petro apuesta por mejorar los ingresos estatales, con mayores cargas tributarias contra los grandes contribuyentes. Sin embargo, expertos aseguran que esto podría estar generando que en Colombia se sientan los efectos de la curva de Laffer, es decir, una caída en la tributación. Sin la radicación y aprobación de una nueva reforma tributaria, las tasas impositivas ya superan 72%, es decir, el total de impuestos que paga una empresa.
Para ello hay que entender que la curva postulada por Arthur Laffer es una referencia para entender cómo se ve un recaudo equilibrado. Esta línea en forma de “u” invertida va de 0% a 100% y resalta que si está en esos valores el Estado no recauda nada porque o no hay impuestos o son tan elevados que los contribuyentes evaden.
Algunos expertos aseguran que es difícil determinar si Colombia ya entró en la caída de la curva, pero reconocen que hay presiones tributarias muy altas sobre el sector formal. Por ejemplo, la Ocde, determinó que el país tiene la tasa impositiva más alta de sus países miembros, ubicada en 35%, pero esa lectura solo toma el impuesto de renta.ARTÍCULO RELACIONADO
En 2022, la Asociación Nacional de Empresarios, Andi advirtió que con la tributaria que radicó en ese momento el ministro de Hacienda, José Antonio Ocampo, la Tasa Efectiva de Tributación llegó a 67,1%. La agremiación advirtió que eso generó efectos adversos, como el aumento de los contribuyentes que evaden impuestos, como los postula la curva.
El exdirector de la Dirección de Impuestos de Aduanas Nacionales, Dian, Lisandro Junco señaló que si la carga tributaria está en 50% o por debajo hay mayor incentivo y confianza inversora, lo contrario que ocurre si se pasa el punto medio, que es lo que actualmente ocurre en el país.
Sobre las razones por las que aseguró Colombia está sobre la curva de Laffer es que en el país no solo se paga el impuesto a la renta, también se pagan gravámenes departamentales y municipales. “Hay un triunvirato de impuestos que deben cumplir los empresarios (…) Laffer, se ve justamente cuando estás trabajando y de tu esfuerzo el gobierno se queda con 72% de los ingresos. No es atractivo, no incentiva la productividad, y la competitividad”, explicó Junco.
Justamente la caída de la inversión se ve reflejado en los recientes informes de Corficolombiana, donde revelan que en los últimos dos años se ha debilitado el desempeño de la inversión privada. Esto puede atribuirse a la alta carga tributaria que tienen las empresas.
“Colombia no está cayendo”
Por su parte, el exdirector de la Dian Jairo Villabona aseguró que no es cierto que Colombia está cayendo en la curva de Laffer. El problema, según él, es que las personas ricas no pagan impuestos por los beneficios fiscales.
Villabona aseguró que se debe mejorar la fiscalización y la tecnología para garantizar el control de los impuestos. Villabona señaló que la evasión en el país es de aproximadamente $98 billones anuales.
La reforma presionaría más a contribuyentes
Aunque es muy poco lo que se sabe de la nueva reforma tributaria que pretende radicar el Ministerio de Hacienda este mes en el Congreso, los expertos coinciden en que la medida generaría mayores presiones contra los grandes contribuyentes.
Por eso, el decano de economía de la Universidad el Externado, Juan Pablo Herrera Saavedra, señaló que la vía más efectiva para que el Gobierno alivie sus presiones fiscales es recortando el gasto y no trasladar la responsabilidad de los ingresos a los contribuyentes. Por eso, destacó que hay problemas graves, como la cantidad de contratos por prestación de servicios que deberían disminuir.
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